Kill Team Combat Calculator

Calculate your combat probabilities and optimize your tactical decisions in Warhammer 40,000: Kill Team.

Combat Probability Calculator

Combat Probability Table

Detailed breakdown of rolls and their associated probabilities.

Phase	Roll Needed (Lower is Better)	Chance (Higher is Better)	Outcome
Hit	—	—	Success
Critical Hit	—	—	Critical Success
Save	—	—	Target Saves
Critical Save	—	—	Target Critically Saves

Damage Distribution Chart

Visual representation of damage potential across different attack outcomes.

What is a Kill Team Calculator?

A Kill Team calculator is an essential tool for any Warhammer 40,000: Kill Team player aiming to gain a tactical edge. It quantifies the probabilities involved in combat, allowing players to make informed decisions about positioning, target prioritization, and when to commit their operatives. In the fast-paced and often brutal world of Kill Team, understanding your chances of success before a dice roll can be the difference between victory and defeat. This calculator focuses on the core combat mechanics: hitting, critically hitting, saving, and critically saving, ultimately projecting the potential damage output of an attack action.

Who should use it:

• New players trying to grasp the fundamental probabilities.
• Experienced players looking to fine-tune their strategies and optimize their kill teams.
• Players who want to understand the impact of weapon traits and operative abilities on combat outcomes.
• Anyone seeking to move beyond guesswork and employ data-driven tactics in their Kill Team games.

Common misconceptions:

• “Dice are always random.” While dice rolls are inherently random, understanding the underlying probabilities allows you to manipulate the factors that influence those rolls (like operative abilities or weapon choices) to your advantage.
• “Calculators remove the fun of dice.” Instead, they enhance it by allowing for more strategic engagement. Knowing the odds empowers you to take calculated risks and celebrate successful rolls with greater appreciation.
• “It’s too complicated.” Our Kill Team calculator simplifies complex probabilities into easy-to-understand metrics, making advanced tactical analysis accessible to everyone.

Kill Team Combat Formula and Mathematical Explanation

The core of the Kill Team calculator lies in a series of probability calculations based on the core rules of Warhammer 40,000: Kill Team. We’ll break down how to determine the chances of hitting, critically hitting, your opponent saving, and critically saving, and then how these combine to determine damage.

Step-by-step derivation:

1. Determine the ‘To Hit’ Roll: This is your operative’s Ballistic Skill (BS) or Weapon Skill (WS).
2. Apply Critical Hit Modifiers: Some abilities or weapon traits might make critical hits easier (e.g., hitting on a 5+ instead of a 6). This is represented by a modifier (e.g., -1 means you need a 5+).
3. Calculate Hit Chance: The chance to hit is the number of successful outcomes (rolls equal to or higher than the ‘To Hit’ roll) divided by the total possible outcomes (6 sides of the die). For example, a 3+ BS means 3, 4, 5, 6 are hits (4 outcomes), so 4/6 = 66.7% chance.
4. Determine Critical Hit Roll: A critical hit normally occurs on a roll of 6. Apply any modifiers here too. A modifier of -1 means a critical hit is now on a 5+.
5. Calculate Critical Hit Chance: Similar to hit chance, this is the number of outcomes that meet or exceed the Critical Hit Roll needed, divided by 6.
6. Determine the ‘To Save’ Roll: This is the target’s Defense characteristic.
7. Apply Critical Save Modifiers: Certain weapon traits (like Armor Penetration) can make it easier for the defender to make a critical save (e.g., a 4+ save becomes a 3+). This is represented by a modifier (e.g., +1 means they need a 3+).
8. Calculate Save Chance: The chance to save is the number of successful outcomes (rolls equal to or higher than the ‘To Save’ roll) divided by 6. A 4+ Save means 4, 5, 6 are saves (3 outcomes), so 3/6 = 50% chance.
9. Determine Critical Save Roll: A critical save normally occurs on a roll of 6. Apply modifiers. Note: For critical saves, the modifier works differently; a modifier of +1 means they need a 3+ to save.
10. Calculate Critical Save Chance: The number of outcomes that meet or exceed the Critical Save Roll needed, divided by 6.
11. Calculate Damage per Hit: This starts with the weapon’s base Damage value. If the hit is *not* a critical hit, this is the damage dealt.
12. Calculate Damage on Critical Hit: This is the weapon’s base Damage plus any Critical Hit Damage Bonus.
13. Calculate Effective Damage per Hit: This is a weighted average considering both normal and critical hits. It’s calculated as: (Normal Hit Damage * Probability of Normal Hit) + (Critical Hit Damage * Probability of Critical Hit). Probability of Normal Hit = Hit Chance – Critical Hit Chance.
14. Calculate Total Damage per Attack Action: This is the Effective Damage per Hit multiplied by the Number of Attacks.
15. Primary Result (Average Damage per Attack Action): This is simply the Total Damage per Attack Action divided by the Number of Attacks, providing a clear average damage output per dice rolled for the action.

Variables Table:

Variable	Meaning	Unit	Typical Range
Attacker’s BS/WS	Operator’s base accuracy skill.	Rating (1-6)	1-5
Target’s Defense	Operator’s base resilience skill.	Rating (1-6)	2-5
Number of Attacks	Dice rolled per attack action.	Count	1-10+
Critical Hit Modifier	Improvement to critical hit roll.	Rating Adjustment	-2 to +1
Critical Save Modifier	Improvement to critical save roll.	Rating Adjustment	0 to +2
Weapon Damage	Base damage per successful hit.	Points	1-5+
Lethal Hits	Weapon ability for auto-critical hits on 6s.	Boolean (Yes/No)	Yes/No
Critical Hit Damage Bonus	Extra damage on critical hits.	Points	0-3+

Practical Examples (Real-World Use Cases)

Example 1: Standard Assault Intercessor vs. Ork Boy

Scenario: An Assault Intercessor (WS 3+) attacks an Ork Boy (Save 5+).

Inputs:

• Attacker’s WS: 3+
• Target’s Defense: 5+
• Number of Attacks: 4 (Chainsword)
• Critical Hit Modifier: None (0)
• Critical Save Modifier: None (0)
• Weapon Damage: 2
• Lethal Hits: No
• Critical Hit Damage Bonus: 1

Calculation Breakdown:

• Hit Roll Needed: 3+
• Crit Hit Roll Needed: 6
• Save Roll Needed: 5+
• Crit Save Roll Needed: 6
• Hit Chance: (7-3)/6 = 4/6 = 66.7%
• Crit Hit Chance: (7-6)/6 = 1/6 = 16.7%
• Save Chance: (7-5)/6 = 2/6 = 33.3%
• Crit Save Chance: (7-6)/6 = 1/6 = 16.7%
• Damage per Normal Hit: 2
• Damage per Crit Hit: 2 + 1 = 3
• Effective Damage per Hit: (2 * (66.7% – 16.7%)) + (3 * 16.7%) = (2 * 50%) + (3 * 16.7%) = 1.0 + 0.5 = 1.5
• Total Damage: 1.5 * 4 = 6
• Average Damage per Attack Action: 6 / 4 = 1.5

Result: The Assault Intercessor deals an average of 1.5 damage per attack action, totaling approximately 6 damage against the Ork Boy. This means the Ork Boy is likely to be taken out efficiently.

Example 2: Pathogen-Infused Necron Warrior vs. Hive Fleet Termagant (with Lethal Hits)

Scenario: A Necron Warrior with a Toxicsoever (Lethal Hits, AP -1, Dmg 2) attacks a Termagant (Save 5+).

Inputs:

• Attacker’s BS: 4+
• Target’s Defense: 5+
• Number of Attacks: 2
• Critical Hit Modifier: None (0)
• Critical Save Modifier: +1 (AP -1 makes save 4+)
• Weapon Damage: 2
• Lethal Hits: Yes
• Critical Hit Damage Bonus: 1 (though Lethal Hits takes precedence)

Calculation Breakdown:

• Hit Roll Needed: 4+
• Crit Hit Roll Needed: 6 (Lethal Hits applies here too, making 6s auto-crits)
• Save Roll Needed: 5+
• Crit Save Roll Needed: 4+ (5+ base – 1 modifier)
• Hit Chance: (7-4)/6 = 3/6 = 50%
• Crit Hit Chance (Lethal Hits): Chance of rolling a 6 = 1/6 = 16.7%
• Save Chance: (7-5)/6 = 2/6 = 33.3%
• Crit Save Chance: (7-4)/6 = 3/6 = 50%
• Damage per Normal Hit: 2
• Damage per Crit Hit (Lethal): 2 + 1 = 3
• Effective Damage per Hit: (2 * (50% – 16.7%)) + (3 * 16.7%) = (2 * 33.3%) + (3 * 16.7%) = 0.666 + 0.501 = 1.167
• Total Damage: 1.167 * 2 = 2.33
• Average Damage per Attack Action: 2.33 / 2 = 1.17

Result: The Necron Warrior deals approximately 1.17 damage per attack action, totaling about 2.33 damage. Against a standard Termagant with 5 wounds, this is unlikely to be lethal in one action, highlighting the resilience of Tyranid operatives.

How to Use This Kill Team Calculator

Using the Kill Team calculator is straightforward and designed to provide quick, actionable insights.

1. Identify Your Operatives and Weapons: Determine which operative is attacking and which weapon they are using. Note their Ballistic Skill (BS) or Weapon Skill (WS).
2. Identify the Target: Note the target operative’s Defense characteristic.
3. Input Core Stats: Enter the operative’s BS/WS, the target’s Defense, and the weapon’s base Damage into the corresponding fields.
4. Enter Number of Attacks: Input how many dice the attack action rolls.
5. Apply Modifiers and Abilities:
   • Adjust the ‘Critical Hit Modifier’ if your weapon or an ability makes critical hits easier (e.g., “explodes on a 5+”). A higher number needed means a negative modifier (e.g., 5+ needs -1).
   • Adjust the ‘Critical Save Modifier’ based on the weapon’s AP (Armor Penetration). AP -1 allows a save one higher (e.g., 5+ becomes 4+), which is a modifier of +1.
   • Check the ‘Lethal Hits’ box if the weapon has this ability.
   • Input the ‘Critical Hit Damage Bonus’ if the weapon specifies extra damage on critical hits (note: Lethal Hits often overrides the specific roll needed for a crit, but still uses the damage bonus).
6. Calculate: Click the “Calculate Combat” button.
7. Read the Results:
   • Primary Result: The main highlighted number shows the average damage you can expect per attack action. This is your key metric for determining lethality.
   • Intermediate Values: Review the Hit Chance, Critical Hit Chance, Save Chance, Critical Save Chance, and Effective Damage per Hit to understand the probability breakdown.
   • Table: The table provides a clear view of the rolls needed for each outcome and their respective probabilities.
   • Chart: Visualize the potential damage distribution.

Decision-making guidance:

• High Average Damage, High Hit Chance: Favorable matchup; commit to the engagement.
• Low Average Damage, High Hit Chance: May require multiple activations or focus fire to bring down tougher targets. Consider using abilities that boost damage.
• Low Hit Chance, High Damage: Risky but potentially rewarding. May be worth it against high-priority targets if other options are limited.
• Opponent Has High Save Chance: Focus fire, use weapons with AP, or target operatives with lower Defense.

Use the “Copy Results” button to share your calculated probabilities with teammates or for record-keeping.

Key Factors That Affect Kill Team Combat Results

Several elements significantly influence the outcome of combat in Kill Team, and understanding these is crucial for effective use of the Kill Team calculator and overall strategy.

• Ballistic Skill (BS) / Weapon Skill (WS): This is the foundational stat. A higher skill (lower number) drastically increases your chance to hit. A 2+ BS operative is far more reliable than a 4+ BS operative.
• Target’s Defense (Save): Conversely, a higher Defense characteristic (lower number, e.g., 3+ is better than 5+) makes it harder for opponents to hit you. This directly impacts the ‘Save Chance’ calculation.
• Weapon Statistics (Damage, AP): The weapon’s base Damage determines the payout for a successful hit. Armor Penetration (AP) modifies the target’s save roll, making them more vulnerable and directly impacting the ‘Critical Save Modifier’ in our calculator.
• Special Weapon Abilities (Lethal Hits, Power, etc.): Abilities like ‘Lethal Hits’ (auto-crits on 6s) fundamentally change the probability landscape, often increasing critical hit chances significantly. The calculator accounts for Lethal Hits directly. Other abilities might grant re-rolls or bonuses.
• Critical Hits and Critical Saves: These are high-impact moments. Critical hits deal bonus damage (or trigger effects), while critical saves negate even powerful hits. The calculator models the probability of these events.
• Modifiers (Re-rolls, -1/-2 to hit/save): Many abilities grant re-rolls of dice or apply modifiers to hit/save rolls. While not directly inputted as a single number in this calculator (beyond critical hit/save modifiers), players should factor in their operative’s ability to re-roll misses or force enemies to re-roll saves. These can drastically improve the *actual* outcome compared to the base probability.
• Action Economy: How many attacks can you make? A weapon with fewer attacks but higher damage might be less reliable than a weapon with many lower-damage attacks, especially when factoring in critical hits and misses. The ‘Number of Attacks’ input is key here.
• Target’s Wounds: While not part of the direct calculation of damage *per hit*, the target’s total Wounds characteristic determines how many successful hits (and how much total damage) are needed to incapacitate them. A high-damage attack is less useful against a target with very few wounds.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

What’s the difference between BS/WS and the target’s Defense?

BS/WS is your operative’s skill to hit a target. Defense is the target’s skill to avoid being hit by a successful attack. Our calculator uses BS/WS for hit rolls and Defense for saving throws.

How do I calculate critical hit probability if my weapon has Lethal Hits AND a Critical Hit modifier (e.g., exploding on 5+)?

If a weapon has Lethal Hits, any 6 rolled is an automatic critical hit. If it ALSO has a modifier making other rolls critical (e.g., explodes on 5+), you calculate the chance for both: the chance of rolling a 6 (for Lethal Hits) PLUS the chance of rolling exactly the modified critical number (e.g., 5 if modifier is -1), provided it wasn’t a 6. Our calculator simplifies this by prioritizing Lethal Hits on a 6 and applying modifiers to the critical hit roll calculation otherwise.

What does ‘AP -1’ mean for the target’s save?

AP -1 means the target’s Defense roll is reduced by 1. For example, a 5+ save becomes a 4+ save. This is handled by the ‘Critical Save Modifier’ input; for AP -1, you would select ‘+1’.

My weapon does 2 Damage, but has a Crit Damage Bonus of +1. What’s the actual damage?

A normal hit deals 2 damage. A critical hit deals 2 (base) + 1 (bonus) = 3 damage. The calculator uses this to determine the ‘Effective Damage per Hit’.

Can I use this calculator for psychic powers?

This calculator focuses on the core weapon attack sequences. While some psychic powers have similar hit/save mechanics, many have unique rules. You’d need to adapt the inputs based on the specific psychic power’s description.

What if an ability lets me re-roll misses?

Our calculator provides the base probability. Abilities that grant re-rolls improve your *actual* chance significantly. For example, re-rolling misses on a 3+ BS attack (66.7% chance) can boost your effective hit chance considerably, depending on the re-roll mechanic. This calculator doesn’t directly incorporate re-rolls but provides the baseline to see how impactful they are.

How important is the Average Damage per Attack Action result?

It’s your most critical metric for comparing weapons and attack actions. It represents the expected damage you’ll deal with each dice rolled, averaged across all outcomes (hits, misses, crits). A higher average damage suggests a more effective attack.

Does this calculator account for cover?

Cover typically modifies the target’s Save characteristic (e.g., benefits granting a +1 to their Save roll). This is handled via the ‘Critical Save Modifier’ input; for example, cover granting a +1 to saves means the target needs a 4+ instead of a 5+, so you’d input ‘+1’ into the modifier field.

What if my operatives have unique abilities that change combat rules?

This calculator covers the standard rules and common abilities like Lethal Hits and AP. For highly unique abilities that fundamentally alter hit/save mechanics beyond simple modifiers, you’ll need to carefully interpret how they affect the base probabilities and adjust inputs accordingly, or consult the specific rules for your faction.

Related Tools & Resources

• Kill Team Weapon Database

  Explore detailed stats and abilities for every weapon in Kill Team.

• Kill Team Faction Analyzer

  Compare operative stats and abilities across different factions.

• Kill Team Mission Planner

  Strategize your objective control and movement for upcoming missions.

• Warhammer 40k Tactics Guide

  General tactical advice applicable to all Warhammer games.

• Kill Team Critical Hit Guide

  Deep dive into the mechanics and impact of critical hits.

• Understanding Armor Penetration (AP) in Kill Team

  Learn how AP affects saving throws and combat outcomes.