Genshin Wish Probability Calculator
Effortlessly calculate your chances of obtaining specific characters and weapons on Genshin Impact banners. Understand pity rates, soft pity, and optimize your Primogem spending for the banners you desire.
Wish Probability Calculator
Enter your current wishes and banner type to see your probabilities.
The total number of wishes you’ve made on the current banner (Character Event or Weapon Event).
Select the type of banner you are wishing on.
Choose your current pity status. ‘Guaranteed’ applies to Character Event Wish if you lost the 50/50 previously. ‘Weapon Pity’ is specific to the Epitome Invocation.
Typically starts around wish 74 for 5-stars on Character/Weapon banners. Leave blank or set to 0 if unsure or not using soft pity.
| Wishes Made | Base 5-Star Rate (%) | Soft Pity Bonus (%) | Total 5-Star Rate (%) | Next 5-Star Guaranteed By |
|---|
5-Star Soft Pity Increase
Total 5-Star Rate
What is a Genshin Wish Probability Calculator?
A Genshin Wish Probability Calculator is a specialized tool designed to help players of the popular gacha game, Genshin Impact, understand and estimate their chances of obtaining specific items (characters or weapons) from the game’s various limited and permanent wish banners. These calculators leverage the known mechanics of the game’s ‘pity’ and ‘soft pity’ systems to provide users with clear, quantifiable odds based on their current wish history and the type of banner they are using.
Who Should Use It:
Any Genshin Impact player who participates in the wish system should consider using this calculator. It’s particularly beneficial for:
- Players saving Primogems for specific characters or weapons.
- Players who want to understand their current pity status.
- Players deciding whether to make more wishes on a particular banner.
- New players trying to grasp the complexities of the wish system.
- Players who want to track their wish history and predict future pulls.
Common Misconceptions:
Several misconceptions surround Genshin’s wish probabilities. One common mistake is believing that each wish has a flat, independent probability. While there are base rates, the pity system significantly alters these odds as you accumulate wishes. Another misconception is that ‘soft pity’ is a hard guarantee; it’s a mechanic that dramatically increases the chance of a 5-star pull after a certain wish count, but it’s not a fixed number of wishes. Finally, many players underestimate the importance of tracking wishes across different banners, as pity for 5-star items on the Character Event Wish banner carries over between banners of the same type, but not to the Weapon or Standard banners.
Genshin Wish Probability Formula and Mathematical Explanation
The probability of pulling a 5-star item in Genshin Impact is not a simple static percentage. It’s a dynamic value influenced by the pity system. Understanding the underlying mechanics is key to using the calculator effectively.
Base Probabilities (Pre-Soft Pity)
The game provides base probabilities for pulling items:
- 5-Star Item: 0.6% (1 in 167 wishes approximately)
- 4-Star Item: 5.1% (1 in 20 wishes approximately, before 5-star pity)
- 3-Star Item: 94.3% (only obtained from Acquaint/Intertwined Fates on Standard, Weapon, and Character banners when no 4-star or 5-star is pulled)
However, these are misleading without considering pity.
Pity System Mechanics
The pity system guarantees a higher rarity item after a certain number of wishes without pulling one:
- 4-Star Guarantee: You are guaranteed at least one 4-star or higher item every 10 wishes.
- 5-Star Guarantee:
- Character Event Wish & Standard Wish: Guaranteed by the 90th wish.
- Weapon Event Wish: Guaranteed by the 80th wish.
Soft Pity
This is where the probability drastically increases before reaching the hard pity limit. While not officially confirmed with exact numbers by miHoYo, community data suggests ‘soft pity’ begins around the 74th wish for 5-star items on Character and Weapon banners. From wish 74 onwards, the chance of pulling a 5-star increases with each subsequent wish, quickly reaching 100% by the hard pity count.
The Calculator’s Logic
Our Genshin Wish Probability Calculator uses the following logic:
- Input Handling: It takes your `currentWishes`, `bannerType`, `pitySystem`, and `softPityStart` wish count.
- Base Rate Determination: It sets the base 5-star rate (e.g., 0.6%) and 4-star rate (e.g., 5.1% for Character/Standard, 5.8% for Weapon before pity).
- Pity Check: It checks if the `currentWishes` is at or beyond the hard pity limit for the specific banner type and pity system. If so, the probability is 100% for that rarity.
- Soft Pity Calculation: If `currentWishes` is at or past the `softPityStart` wish count and below hard pity, it applies an increasing probability bonus. The exact formula for the soft pity increase is complex and derived from community data, but it effectively raises the probability linearly or exponentially from the soft pity start to the hard pity end. A simplified model might add a percentage based on `(currentWishes – softPityStart)`.
- 4-Star Rate Adjustment: The 4-star probability is calculated based on its base rate (5.1% or 5.8%), but it’s reduced as the 5-star probability increases due to soft pity or guaranteed pity. The formula is roughly `P(4-star) = Base_4_star_rate – P(5-star_pull_at_this_wish)`. However, the *guaranteed* 4-star within 10 wishes is a separate mechanic; the calculator shows the probability of pulling a 4-star on the *next* specific wish.
Primary Result: Probability of Next 5-Star Pull
This is the main output. It combines the base rate, the soft pity bonus (if applicable), and the hard pity guarantee. If you are at wish 89 on a standard banner, your probability is very high.
Intermediate Values:
- 5-Star Item Probability: The calculated chance for the *very next wish* to yield a 5-star.
- 4-Star Item Probability: The calculated chance for the *very next wish* to yield a 4-star (before hitting 5-star pity).
- Guaranteed 5-Star in Next X Wishes: `Hard_Pity_Limit – currentWishes`.
- Guaranteed 4-Star in Next X Wishes: `10 – (currentWishes % 10)` if `currentWishes % 10 != 0`, otherwise 10.
- Soft Pity Boost: The added probability percentage due to being in the soft pity range.
Variables Table
| Variable | Meaning | Unit | Typical Range |
|---|---|---|---|
currentWishes |
Total wishes made on the current banner’s history. | Wishes | 0+ |
bannerType |
Type of wish banner being pulled on. | String (Character/Weapon) | Character, Weapon |
pitySystem |
Current pity state (Standard, Guaranteed, Weapon). | String | Standard, Guaranteed, Weapon |
softPityStart |
Wish number where soft pity increases odds significantly. | Wishes | 0-90 |
base5StarRate |
The fundamental probability of pulling a 5-star item. | % | 0.6% (Character/Standard), 0.8% (Weapon) |
base4StarRate |
The fundamental probability of pulling a 4-star item (before pity). | % | 5.1% (Character/Standard), 5.8% (Weapon) |
hardPityLimit |
The maximum number of wishes needed for a guaranteed 5-star. | Wishes | 80 (Weapon), 90 (Character/Standard) |
Practical Examples (Real-World Use Cases)
Let’s illustrate how the Genshin Wish Probability Calculator can be used with practical scenarios:
Example 1: Saving for a Specific 5-Star Character
Scenario: A player is saving Primogems for the upcoming Character Event Wish banner featuring a highly anticipated 5-star character. They currently have 30 wishes accumulated on this banner from previous pulls (they lost the 50/50 last time, so their next 5-star is guaranteed).
Inputs:
- Total Wishes Made on This Banner: 30
- Banner Type: Character Event Wish
- Pity System State: Guaranteed Pity
- Soft Pity Start Wish: 74
Calculator Output (Illustrative):
- Primary Result: 100.00%
- 5-Star Item Probability: 100.00%
- 4-Star Item Probability: 0.00% (since 5-star is guaranteed next)
- Guaranteed 5-Star in Next X Wishes: 60 (90 – 30)
- Guaranteed 4-Star in Next X Wishes: 10 (since 30 % 10 = 0)
- Soft Pity Boost: 0.00%
Interpretation: This player knows with certainty that their very next wish (wish #31) will be a 5-star item. Since they are on a guaranteed banner, they will get the featured character. They need 60 more wishes to guarantee the 5-star, and they are guaranteed a 4-star within the next 10 wishes.
Example 2: Pulling on the Weapon Banner
Scenario: A player decides to try their luck on the Weapon Event Wish banner for a specific 5-star sword. They have made 55 wishes on this banner and have not yet triggered the weapon banner’s specific pity system.
Inputs:
- Total Wishes Made on This Banner: 55
- Banner Type: Weapon Event Wish
- Pity System State: Weapon Banner Pity
- Soft Pity Start Wish: 74
Calculator Output (Illustrative):
- Primary Result: ~15.50%
- 5-Star Item Probability: 15.50%
- 4-Star Item Probability: ~4.00% (Base 5.8% – effective 5-star rate)
- Guaranteed 5-Star in Next X Wishes: 25 (80 – 55)
- Guaranteed 4-Star in Next X Wishes: 5 (since 55 % 10 = 5)
- Soft Pity Boost: ~14.90% (Calculated increase from wish 74 onwards)
Interpretation: This player has a ~15.50% chance of pulling a 5-star weapon on their next wish (wish #56). This is significantly higher than the base 0.8% due to being in the soft pity range (as 55 wishes is approaching the typical 74 start). They still have a chance for a 4-star item on this pull. They are guaranteed a 5-star weapon within the next 25 wishes, and a 4-star item within the next 5 wishes.
How to Use This Genshin Wish Probability Calculator
Using the Genshin Wish Probability Calculator is straightforward. Follow these steps to get accurate insights into your gacha odds:
- Determine Your Banner Type: Identify which banner you are currently wishing on or planning to wish on. Is it the Character Event Wish, the Weapon Event Wish, or the Standard Wish? Select the corresponding option.
-
Count Your Wishes Accurately: This is the most crucial step. You need to know the total number of wishes you have made *specifically on that banner type’s history*.
- Character Event Wish: Pity carries over between Character Event banners but resets for Standard and Weapon banners. If you lost the 50/50 on a previous Character Event banner, your next 5-star is guaranteed.
- Weapon Event Wish: Pity is separate for the Weapon banner. The ‘Epitomize path’ (calculating Fate Points) is a separate system not directly covered here but influences the guaranteed item.
- Standard Wish: Pity is independent and does not carry over to Event banners.
Input this total count into the “Total Wishes Made on This Banner” field.
-
Select Your Pity System State:
- Choose ‘Standard Pity’ if you are on a Character or Standard banner and have not lost the 50/50 recently.
- Choose ‘Guaranteed Pity’ if you are on a Character Event banner and the last 5-star you received was NOT the featured character (meaning your next 5-star is guaranteed to be the featured one).
- Choose ‘Weapon Banner Pity’ for the Epitome Invocation.
- Enter Soft Pity Start (Optional): Most players experience increased odds starting around wish 74 for 5-stars. Inputting this value (or a more precise one if known) helps refine the probability calculation. If you’re unsure or don’t track soft pity, the default value of 74 is a good estimate. For 4-stars, pity is fixed at 10 wishes.
- Click “Calculate Probabilities”: Once all inputs are entered, click this button. The calculator will process your data.
How to Read Results:
- Primary Highlighted Result (e.g., 15.50%): This is the most critical number. It represents the probability of your *very next wish* yielding a 5-star item.
- 5-Star Item Probability: Same as the primary result, often displayed for clarity.
- 4-Star Item Probability: The chance of your next wish yielding a 4-star item. This probability decreases as the 5-star probability increases due to soft or hard pity.
- Guaranteed 5-Star/4-Star in Next X Wishes: Indicates how many more wishes you need to make to hit the hard pity for a 5-star or the guaranteed 4-star within 10 pulls.
- Soft Pity Boost: Shows the additional percentage points added to your base 5-star rate due to being within the soft pity range.
Decision-Making Guidance:
Use these results to make informed decisions:
- Saving Strategy: If your probability is low, continue saving Primogems. If it’s high (e.g., >50% or nearing hard pity), you might consider making a few wishes if you’re close to a desired item.
- Banner Choice: Understand the different pity mechanics for Character vs. Weapon banners. The Weapon banner is generally riskier due to the Epitomize path and higher hard pity.
- Resource Management: Avoid spending wishes aimlessly. Knowing your odds helps you allocate your hard-earned Primogems and Fates more effectively towards your goals.
Key Factors That Affect Genshin Wish Results
Several factors influence the outcome of your Genshin Impact wishes, extending beyond simple luck. Understanding these elements is crucial for managing expectations and resources effectively. Our Genshin Wish Probability Calculator helps quantify some of these, but the underlying principles are important:
- Pity System Mechanics: This is the most significant factor. As detailed above, the guarantee of a 4-star every 10 wishes and a 5-star by wish 90 (or 80 for weapons) fundamentally alters the probability landscape from a flat percentage. The calculator directly models this.
- Soft Pity Threshold: The unofficial ‘soft pity’ window, typically starting around wish 74 for 5-stars, dramatically increases your chances with each subsequent pull. Knowing when this begins allows for more strategic wishing, as your odds improve significantly even before hitting hard pity. The calculator incorporates this estimated increase.
- Banner Type and Pity Carry-over: The specific banner dictates the hard pity limit (90 for Character/Standard, 80 for Weapon) and how pity transfers. Crucially, 5-star pity on the Character Event banner resets to standard pity if you pull the featured item, but the *number of wishes made* carries over to the *next* Character Event banner if you didn’t get the featured item. This means your wish count is a vital input for accurate calculation. This calculator assumes you track this correctly.
- 50/50 Chance on Character Banners: When you pull a 5-star on a Character Event banner, there’s a 50% chance it’s the featured character and a 50% chance it’s a Standard banner 5-star. If you lose the 50/50, your next 5-star pull on that banner type is guaranteed to be the featured character. This ‘guaranteed’ state drastically changes future probabilities, which is why the ‘Pity System State’ input is vital.
- Weapon Banner Epitomize Path: The Weapon Event Wish introduces the ‘Epitomize’ system. While this calculator focuses on the probability of pulling *any* 5-star weapon, the Epitomize path tracks your choices (hitting a specific weapon’s counter) to guarantee you eventually get one of the two featured weapons. This adds another layer of strategic planning beyond just probability.
- Wish History Tracking: Accurate tracking of every single wish made on each banner type is paramount. Mistakenly entering the wrong wish count is the most common error leading to incorrect probability estimates. Users must diligently maintain their own records or rely on in-game history where available.
- Primogem Acquisition Rate: While not affecting the *probability* of a single wish, the rate at which you acquire Primogems (through daily commissions, events, exploration, Welkin Moon, Battle Pass, etc.) dictates how quickly you can reach pity or afford multiple wishes. This impacts the *feasibility* of achieving your goals within a certain timeframe.
- Player Goals and Risk Tolerance: Ultimately, what a player *wants* and how much risk they are willing to take heavily influences their wish strategy. Someone aiming for a specific 5-star character on a guaranteed banner will approach wishing differently than someone trying their luck on the weapon banner for a slight edge.
By considering these factors alongside the calculated probabilities, players can make more informed and satisfying decisions regarding their Genshin Impact wishes.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
A: The base probability is 0.6%. However, this doesn’t account for the pity system, which guarantees a 5-star by the 90th wish and significantly increases odds after wish 74 (soft pity).
A: Pity for the Character Event Wish banner carries over to the *next* Character Event Wish banner if you did not obtain the featured 5-star item. Pity does NOT carry over between Character Event, Weapon Event, and Standard Wish banners.
A: If you pull a 5-star item on a Character Event Wish banner and it is *not* the featured character (meaning you lost the 50/50), your next 5-star pull on any subsequent Character Event Wish banner is guaranteed to be the featured character. This calculator uses this information to set the 5-star probability to 100% once pity is reached.
A: Soft pity is an unofficial term for the period before hard pity where the probability of pulling a 5-star item increases substantially with each wish. It’s generally believed to start around wish 74 for 5-star items on Character and Weapon banners.
A: No. The Weapon Event Wish has a hard pity of 80 wishes (instead of 90) and its own unique ‘Epitomize’ system for guaranteeing one of the two featured weapons. Pity does not carry over from Character banners.
A: You should update your wish count every time you make a wish on any banner. Accurate tracking is essential for the calculator to provide reliable probability estimates.
A: Pulling a 4-star item does *not* reset your 5-star pity count. Pity only resets after you pull a 5-star item.
A: This calculator predicts the probability of obtaining a 5-star item on your *next* wish based on pity mechanics. It does not predict *which* specific 5-star item you will get, except in the case of the Character Event Banner where ‘Guaranteed Pity’ ensures the featured character.
A: Soft pity mechanics are not officially detailed by miHoYo. The values used in this calculator are based on extensive community research and data mining. While generally accurate, there might be minor discrepancies from the exact internal algorithm.
Related Tools and Internal Resources
- Primogem Earning Calculator – Estimate how many Primogems you can earn over time.
- Genshin Artifact Optimizer – Optimize your artifact stats for maximum performance.
- Genshin Impact Team Synergy Guide – Learn about character team compositions.
- Best Gacha Games Guide – Explore other popular gacha titles.
- Genshin Impact Weapon Tier List – See how weapons rank against each other.
- Genshin Impact Character Build Guides – Find the best builds for your favorite characters.
- Genshin Impact Event Tracker – Stay updated on current and upcoming in-game events.